Leaked Document Signals Bad News For Northern Ireland

Frederick Owens
February 10, 2018

The UK will be put under even greater pressure to offer up a vision of the future relationship that will deliver for the entire UK economy, but the inability of that model to ensure frictionless trade is likely to be exposed.

The North East, which overwhelmingly voted to Leave the European Union, would suffer the most harm, according to the forecast.

May insisted on language in the December "joint report" making clear that Northern Ireland would not be treated differently in Brexit than the rest of the U.K. Maintaining the customs union, however, would either require all of the U.K.to stay within the existing EU trade framework, or would require a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K.

A no-deal outcome would result in a 13 per cent hit to economic growth in the West Midlands, 12 per cent in the North West and Northern Ireland, 9.5 per cent in Wales and nine per cent in Scotland.

"A 16% reduction in the GDP of the North East translates into thousands of job losses".

Every region of Britain would be affected in the case of three possible Brexit scenarios, with London the least hit, a secret impact analysis revealed Wednesday. This is frankly a nightmare scenario for our region and for the government to be aware of this and still be willing to consider a no deal Brexit is absolute madness.

By comparison, the capital would sustain just a 2 per cent hit to growth if the United Kingdom gets a free trade deal, 3.5 per cent in a no deal scenario, and just 1 per cent if the country stays in the single market.

"The Conservatives are putting the public in the firing line because they are hell bent on Brexit".

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Ms McEntee told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "So we need the UK Government, we need Theresa May and her team, to start looking at and to start I suppose letting us know what the proposals are coming from their side and what their options are".

The SNP government's January report found that a no-deal Brexit would cost the Scottish economy nearly £13bn a year by 2030. "People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit". "They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit".

The leaks have emerged despite MPs reading the documents under controlled conditions.

In the House of Commons on Wednesday, an MP appeared to confirm the 12 per cent number in a question to Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley.

The figure is slightly worse than the 8.5% hit to GDP predicted by a Scottish government study last month.

The latest leak came as the British prime minister Theresa May met her Brexit "war cabinet" to discuss Ireland and immigration as the government seeks to agree an approach to the next phase of negotiations with the EU.

"Does she believe any analysis she has seen?"

Other reports by Free-Prsite

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